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OverviewOn December 23 https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Jeremiah-George-Jersey , 2018 the Indianapolis Colts will host the New York Giants. In this Week 16 match-up I sought to understand our opponent and get a better idea of how they may attack our surging Colts.The Colts have lost to the Giants once in the past twenty (20) years, that loss coming in 2002. Prior to that the Colts hadn’t lost to the often talked about G-Men since 1993 and going back to 1968 (not a typo, the Vietnam War was being waged) our Colts are 8-3 against these Giants. Unfortunately for us, history has nothing to do with the game on Sunday, unless you consider Eli Manning’s career, as the best of it is far in the past. Let’s figure out what we can expect in Week 16. Offensive Scheme When the New York Giants hired Pat Shurmur away from his post as offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings, they believed they were getting the man who made Case Keenum look like a top 15 quarterback which is exactly who they got. The biggest problem is he couldn’t bring the Vikings defense with him so while the wins haven’t come for the Giants at the pace they were probably hoping he has managed to improve Eli Manning’s statistical output to the best they’ve been in years. He’s currently on pace to throw only 10 interceptions on the year which would tie the lowest amount he’s had in a single season (as a full time starter) in his career. So what does this offense look like? For answers I turned to my favorite football website, not named Stampede Blue; Inside the Pylon. Nick Turchyn looked at Shurmur’s offense from 2017 and while I’m going to give you excerpts here to paint a coherent but (hopefully) succinct picture this article is worth the read. Your browser does not support HTML5 video.This last paragraph jumped off the page when I read it as it is very consistent with what I’ve seen on tape of these Giants. Lots of swing passes. Also given the aggressive nature of our defense I presume we will see many delayed handoffs this Sunday. If you’ve followed my work very long, you’ve probably seen me talk about play action working regardless of run success. I’m not just making stuff up, but that’s not the point of this article. Turchyn goes on to break down a couple of different play action passes that turned into screens. He then goes into the differences between Ben McAdoo’s West Coast offense and what Shurmur might look to do when he drops this gem:He goes on to show a clip of Manning against the Cowboys in week 14. I am unable to embed the video but it shows exactly what he’s talking about above. Manning wasn’t getting more comfortable. Turchyn goes on to show similarities and differences between McAdoo and Shurmur’s system. He highlights some quick hitting passes and where Manning was successful and where he struggled. The long and short of it is, the Giants will look to establish the run, use play action and get the ball out of Manning’s hand quickly. If the Colts can limit the ground game and force the Giants to throw the ball down the field, it could bode well for the Colts playoff chances. While Shurmur has done all he can to improve the offense he hasn’t been able to overcome all of their deficiencies. The rankings haven’t improved much and they will miss the playoffs for the 8th time in the past decade. For a deeper dive into Pat Shurmer, really go read the entirety of the above article, it is excellent.Despite the Giants overwhelming lack of success, like the Cowboys, analysts year after year talk about them ad nauseam. I’ve been a Giants fan a total of two days in my entire life, each of those two days they’ve made me proud Denico Autry Jersey , beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Beyond those two games, like the Cowboys, most of their recent seasons have been irrelevant.Quarterback: I feel it’s important to preface the clips I’m about to show you with this: I pulled these clips before I found the article and subsequent data from the Inside the Pylon article. I need to tell you that because if I weren’t the guy who watched the tape, found the clips and then many, many hours later found an article that perfectly explained what the clips showed, I would assume the guy writing the article was cherry picking to fit his narrative. That’s not how it happened, but it does completely back up everything you’ve read up to this point. Rolling out:Manning does a good job here off of play action, rolling to his right, finding a receiver and delivering a catchable ball under pressure. I would say that he makes a read, but that would imply that he progressed through his reads and I don’t think that’s what happened here at all. It worked out, but you’ll see in the last clip how quickly it can go wrong.Quick hitting throw:This ball comes out quickly on his first read. There’s nothing great about this play, but this play and plays like it are why Manning’s numbers have been good. You can rack up a lot of yards and a great completion percentage without racking up a lot of wins. Longer than 2.5 seconds:Just like Nick Turchyn said, if Manning has to hold the ball and progress through reads, his footwork gets sloppy and he is slow to process. That’s exactly what happens here as he fades away and throws a bad pass. RPO-ish:While this play could be confused as a RPO, it’s just a play action pass. Manning was going to his first option all the way, the cornerback recognized it, jumped the route and made the interception. Most of Manning’s mistakes this season have been fairly minor. He isn’t making big mistakes, he isn’t taking big risks Nyheim Hines Color Rush Jersey , he’s not making a lot of big plays and he’s not winning the Giants any games. Running Back:There’s not much I can tell you about Saquon Barkley that you probably don’t already know. He’s really good. He should be, he was drafted second overall, he better be great and so far he has been. What does a great running back on a bad team get you? A losing record. With that said he could turn into a huge problem if our Colts don’t play their assignments and gang tackle. He is a lot of fun to watch but hopefully he won’t be adding to his highlight reel this Sunday. It would be a mistake not to mention his ability as a pass catcher. He’s caught 82 passes, 15 more than Odell Beckham. There isn’t much to say about it, he’s a complete back. That’s a tiny crease. Barkley hits it in a hurry. This is what you should expect out of him but it isn’t common. I watched Barry Sanders play a handful of times as a kid. I wasn’t able to really appreciate what I was watching and while Barkley isn’t Sanders, he can do some of the same things I didn’t think the NFL world would ever see again. This is why our Colts have to stay in their gaps and multiple people have to flow to Barkley. At Penn State he majored in making the first guy miss and minored in breaking tackles. He is a special back who can take over games, our defense will need to have a plan in place to keep that from happening. Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram all trail Saquon Barkley in catches but they’re the guys you need to know. Beckham is a great receiver with the temperament and maturity of an emotional 10 year old who was handed a million dollar check. If the Colts had the chance to acquire his services I would hope they pass, no matter how good the guy is. I don’t have a high opinion of Beckham the person but he is a lot of fun to watch. Engram is talented and Shepard would be a big upgrade on the Colts roster but as long as Eli Manning is under center we may never know how productive these receivers can be. Yards after catch is a concept foreign to Colts fans, the Giants receivers not only need it if they have any hope of moving the ball, they are good at it too. To Beckham’s credit he’s the only guy on the roster with the guts to throw a pass down field. I know, Barkley’s section was above this one but how could I not include him in the pass catcher’s section?If the Colts can give Beckham the same treatment they’ve given DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper, they’ll just have to worry about stopping Saquon Barkley. Offensive Line: In the off season the Giants signed Nate Solder to a massive contract to play left tackle. At the time I criticized the move and said that they were paying Solder insane money to play worse than Anthony Castonzo. I caught some flack, but I was right. Solder, hasn’t been bad but they paid him like the best tackle in football and he hasn’t been close to that. The Giants also took Will Hernandez in the second round in the 2018 draft. Hernandez has played well at times but he hasn’t changed the entire culture and attitude of the Giants offensive line like some other rookie guard we’ve all heard about. Chad Wheeler the Giants starting right tackle, is probably a good guy. I don’t have anything positive to say about his ability to play football. Spencer Pulley the starting center is in the same boat as Wheeler. Jamon Brown, the starting right guard is in the exact same boat. These guys better hope they keep their looks because they’re not going to get by on their ability to play football much longer. I expect to see a lot of this on Sunday. They just don’t have the talent up front to block the Colts deep defensive line. I also expect to see this. This isn’t on the offensive line but it counts all the same. This line is bad. I expect more production from our young defensive line and with any luck a fun day in the trenches for the good guys. Final Thoughts:The Giants have played better over the second half of the season. They’ve beaten the 49ers, the Buccaneers https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Johnny-Unitas-Jersey , the Redskins and the Bears. Of those opponents only the Bears are a quality win and the Giants have yet to beat a team with quarterback as good as Andrew Luck. This isn’t a game anyone should overlook but as a fan I’m not going to worry about the outcome of this one. What a story Saturday will be, no matter the outcome. It is the story of an unlikely meeting between a team who few thought would even make the playoffs versus what was the season-long consensus top team in the AFC. There is no doubt that what the Chiefs have been able to accomplish this year will go down in the record books as one of the most dominant seasons, particularly on offense, in NFL history.Patrick Mahomes? In 2017, some evaluators questioned whether he had a cannon arm but little else.My word do those concerns look ridiculous. He is more than the quarterback with the strongest arm, who can throw the hardest fastball. He has been Houdini, a true showman at the quarterback position throughout the season. His no-look highlight is ridiculous.It is borderline unfair to think that Mahomes was gifted an offense that includes superstar players like perhaps the most dangerous deep threat in the NFL, Tyreek Hill, perhaps the best tight end in the game, Travis Kelce, and one of the most feared backfields (early in the season) in the NFL. When you dream up a dangerous, high-powered offense that will score points — the Chiefs offense is so ridiculously stacked with skill players that you would be forgiven if you couldn’t come up with a team that could match it in your head.This ought to look somewhat familiar to Colts fans. During the Peyton Manning era, there were numerous years where Indianapolis was at or near the most dominant offense in the NFL in just about any measure. Rarely did they have the run game that the Chiefs had early in the season but putting up points was almost never a problem.Chiefs fans have every excuse to believe that their offense will score points. If Colts fans honestly believe that the defense is going to shut down or shutout this offense, they should honestly return to reality. The defense in Indianapolis is definitely a different animal. It can produce stops, create turnovers, and limit big plays. Of that, there is no doubt. However, the Chiefs are going to get theirs on Saturday and the Colts are going to have to be prepared to consistently counter-punch or they will risk falling behind — a really poor choice if Indianapolis has any hope for an upset.It is true Jacoby Brissett Jersey , the Colts have not faced off against anything like the Chiefs in 2018. Mahomes is the best quarterback the team will have seen. The Chiefs have the best collection of offensive weapons the Colts will have seen all year — even if Sammy Watkins doesn’t play. Matt Eberflus will have his hands full trying to slow down the offensive machine Kansas City has been fine-tuning all season long.Having said that, the Chiefs are about to run into something they haven’t seen this season either. The games that prepared them best for what they are about to see are the ones they played against the Los Angeles Chargers. They are going to play a team that has ridiculous balance and is near the top of the league in every category that should concern them.The offensive line the Chiefs are about to face will absolutely get overlooked by many of their fans. With the full complement of starting offensive linemen healthy this season, the Colts haven’t allowed a sack. With the full complement of starting offensive linemen healthy this season, the Colts have been able to efficiently run the football.This team will punch the Chiefs defense in the mouth in the trenches and grind out long, clock-eating drives on the ground — leaving Mahomes and his offensive skill players to freeze on the sideline — if Kansas City isn’t careful. The Colts also have Andrew Luck, a tight end with the most touchdowns in the league, a bevy of options out of the backfield, and T.Y. Hilton. Don’t get confused, the Colts offense isn’t anywhere as dominant as the Chiefs. However, it is certainly more balanced and far more smashmouth. In the cold, in the playoffs, if the Colts offense can control the ball and sustain drives, young Mahomes is going to get tested.The game has the makings of one that could go any direction. It could be a shootout for the ages with Andrew Luck forced to play catch up against the best offense in the NFL. It could be far more pedestrian on the scoreboard in elements that are surprisingly worse than what is currently forecasted. It wouldn’t shock me if the Chiefs ran away with the game and left the Colts realizing that they are still a season away from being a truly nasty playoff team. It also wouldn’t shock me if the Colts stunned Kansas City, pounced on their opportunities on defense and left Chiefs fans disappointed once again in the playoffs.No matter the outcome, it should be a good game and will likely include elements that surprise fans for both teams.