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CHICAGO, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) -- The much heralded and anticipated interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve for the first time in nearly 10 years materialized on Wednesday. In electronic trading following the release of the Fed's statement nike air max wholesale australia , gold prices fell from the settlement.
As of Wednesday, the most active gold contract had fallen by 9 percent since the end of 2014, indicating the precious metal settlement will very likely log a third consecutive year of losses.
Heading into 2016, is gold going to bounce back from its multi-year lows as traders ceased to speculate about when the hikes would begin? Many investment banks' predictions for 2016 suggest another tough year for gold amid low inflation and higher interest rates in the United States.
In early July, Goldman Sachs' Jeffrey Currie nike shoes wholesale australia , who told investors to sell in 2013 before the metal's biggest collapse in three decades, has predicted gold prices could trade below 1,000 U.S. dollars an ounce.
"We think we are in a structural bear market, not only in gold, but across the commodity complex nike tns wholesale australia , as the individual commodity stories are reinforcing to one another, creating a negative feedback loop," Currie said in a late July interview.
Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citi cheap nike air max wholesale , ABN Amro, and Societe Generale all forecast gold prices will break down below 1,000 dollars in early 2016, with the average price declining further from 2015 levels. ABN Amro' s forecast, in one of the most bearish forecasts so far nike air max 90 wholesale , suggests gold will drop to a low of 900 dollars or below during 2016.
HSBC, however, believe that gold will finally bounce back in 2016 after repeatedly hitting multi-year lows. The bank also warned that gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short-term and may move within striking distance of 1,000 dollars before recovering.
The 2015 weakness in gold is due to several events occurring together: lower inflation, a surging U.S. dollar amid expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates nike air max 95 wholesale , and sluggish physical demand for the precious metal as global growth slows down.
These drags on gold in 2015 overwhelmed risk events, a major factor which sent investors running to buy gold, bringing the metal to a nearly six-year low. Most of them (drags) will not disappear next year, and might show more strength following a new Fed rate-hike cycle. In other words, the downward pressure on gold will continue to outweigh the support for the metal in 2016.
Some analysts argue that historical data show gold rallies during the majority of Fed rate-hike cycles nike air max 97 wholesale , with traders enjoying large average gains. The last such occurrence was between mid-2004 and mid-2006, when gold jumped above 700 dollars from 400 dollars, while the U.S. central bank raised the federal funds rate 17 consecutive times.
These analysts are potentially ignoring inflation as a factor, which has greater influence on the value of gold. Investors generally purchase gold for safety's sake when markets and economies crash and doubt surrounds the value of paper currency.